How Inflation Will Impact Nonprofit Donations During the 2022 Holiday Giving Season

Inflation remains one of 2022’s signature storylines as Americans enter the holiday season. Per the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices in September reached a 40-year high: rent increased 7.2 percent, groceries climbed 13 percent, and electricity prices surged 15.5 percent. 

Civis Analytics was curious what impact these baseline price increases would have on the average American’s charitable giving during the 2022 holiday season. After all, 30 percent of annual nonprofit giving traditionally takes place between #GivingTuesday (scheduled for Nov. 29 this year) and Dec. 31, but in an environment where a carton of eggs costs 30.5 percent more than it did a year ago, inflation appears likely to have an effect on charitable contributions in coming weeks, especially with Americans already cutting back on everything from takeout to vacations to debt payments.

Civis leveraged its always-on national survey infrastructure to poll thousands of respondents ages 18 and older to gauge inflation’s impact on 2022 charitable giving plans, and to identify which segments of the population are most impacted. This is information that nonprofits can use to gut-check and course-correct — to adapt their seasonal outreach strategies on the fly in order to more effectively seize opportunities to engage the people whose support matters most. 

Nearly half of all Americans say inflation has had no impact on their likelihood to donate to nonprofit organizations, and 8 percent of survey respondents say inflation has in fact made them more likely to donate. However, the remaining 43 percent state that inflation’s toll has made them less likely to donate to nonprofit causes.

Income level plays a decisive role in Americans’ outlook, of course. Fifty-five percent of respondents making more than $100,000 annually say inflation has no effect on the likelihood they will donate to nonprofit organizations, compared to 47 percent of Americans earning between $50,001 and $100,000, and 44 percent of Americans making $50,000 or less. Nine percent of respondents earning north of $100,000 say inflation has made them more likely to donate to nonprofits, versus 7 percent of respondents earning between $50,001 and $100,000, and 7 percent making under $50,000. However, 35 percent of Americans making more than $100,000 say inflation has made them less likely to donate to nonprofit causes, compared to 47 percent of Americans making between $50,001 and $100,000, and 49 percent of Americans making $50,000 or less.

Age is another key factor. Sixty-two percent of respondents younger than 35 years old maintain inflation has no influence on their plans to donate to nonprofits; 28 percent say they are less likely to donate to causes they support, and 10 percent are more likely to donate. On the other hand, half of all respondents 35 and older say inflation has made them less likely to donate to nonprofits; 43 percent say inflation has no effect on their giving plans, and 7 percent plan to donate more money. 

Partisanship also shapes giving intent. Fifty-three percent of Democrats/voters leaning Democrat say inflation has no bearing on their plans to donate to nonprofits, well above Republicans/voters leaning Republican at 42 percent and slightly ahead of independent/”something else” voters at 52 percent. Conversely, 50 percent of Republican-aligned voters say inflation has made them less likely to donate to nonprofits, compared to 37 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents. Nine percent of Democrats plan to increase their financial support, edging out Republicans at 8 percent and independents at 6 percent.  

Supporters of ex-President Donald Trump are less likely to donate to nonprofit organizations than other Americans, Civis found. Fifty-one percent of survey respondents identifying as Trump voters say inflation’s impact has made them less likely to donate to nonprofit causes; 40 percent say inflation has no bearing on their plans to donate to nonprofits, and 9 percent intend to boost their financial support. Among respondents who voted for a candidate other than Trump in the 2016 election, 52 percent say inflation has not changed their likelihood to donate to a nonprofit; 39 percent say inflation has made them less likely to donate; and 9 percent plan to increase their financial support. 

Nonprofits likely face rough sledding in the weeks ahead: only 29 percent of respondents plan to make a donation during the 2022 holiday giving season, down from 38 percent in 2021, according to a Civis survey conducted a year ago. Forty-three percent of Americans have no plans to donate to nonprofits in the weeks ahead, compared to 44 percent a year ago, and the remaining 28 percent don’t know whether they will or will not donate this season, compared to 18 percent of undecideds a year earlier.

Income is again a determining factor. Forty-four percent of respondents earning more than $100,000 annually plan to make a nonprofit donation this holiday season, compared to 28 percent of Americans bringing home between $50,001 and $100,000, and 19 percent of Americans making $50,000 or less. At the opposite end of the spectrum, 53 percent of respondents making $50,000 or less have no plans to donate in the weeks ahead, versus 41 percent earning between $50,001 and $100,000, and 34 percent of Americans making $100,000 or more. Twenty-two percent of respondents earning $100,000 are unsure whether they will donate in the weeks to come, compared to 30 percent of respondents making between $50,001 and $100,000, and 28 percent earning $50,000 or less.

Both age and partisanship also shape intent to donate this giving season. Thirty-three percent of respondents 35 and older plan to donate to a nonprofit organization during the holiday season, compared to 23 percent of respondents under 35; at the same time, 48 percent of Americans under 35 do not plan to make donations as 2022 winds down, compared to 40 percent of respondents 35 and up. Twenty-nine percent of the under-35 population remains unsure whether it will donate this holiday season, slightly more than the 35 and older segment at 27 percent. 

As for partisanship, 33 percent of Democrats/voters leaning Democrat plan to donate to nonprofit causes this holiday season, ahead of Republicans/voters leaning Republican at 31 percent and independent/”something else” voters at 24 percent. Forty-six percent of Republicans/voters leaning Republican and 48 of independents/”something else” voters do not plan to donate to nonprofit endeavors this year, compared to 36 percent of Democrats/voters leaning Democrat. Thirty-one percent of Democrats, 23 percent of Republicans, and 28 percent of independent voters are unsure whether or not they will donate during the 2022 holiday season. 

Good news for nonprofits: despite the perilous economic environment, 57 percent of Americans plan to donate about the same to nonprofits during the 2022 giving season as they did the previous year. While 15 percent of respondents plan to donate “a lot less” than last year and 12 percent plan to give “a little less,” 11 percent are poised to donate “a little more” than a year ago, and 5 percent promise to give “a lot more.”

Don’t look for Americans to spread the wealth this holiday season: among respondents planning to donate in coming weeks, 64 percent plan to give to just one nonprofit organization. Twenty-three percent plan to give to two organizations, with just 8 percent planning to give to three nonprofits, 2 percent pledging support for four nonprofits, and 3 percent donating to five or more organizations.

While responses to this question were largely consistent across variables like race, age, and geographic region, Civis identified interesting discrepancies related to income, partisanship, and marital status. For example, 75 percent of respondents making under $25,000 will limit their holiday donations to one organization, compared to 70 percent of respondents making between $25,000 and $50,000; 66 percent of those making between $50,001 and $75,000; 60 percent of those making between $75,0001 and $100,000; 49 percent of those making between $100,001 and $150,000; and 55 percent of those making $150,001 or higher. 

Democrats and respondents leaning Democrat, meanwhile, are less likely than other voters to only donate to one organization this holiday season, and more likely than other voters to donate to two organizations. Fifty-seven percent of left-leaning Americans plan to donate to just one nonprofit in coming weeks, compared to 67 percent of Republicans/respondents leaning Republican and 69 percent of independent/”something else” respondents. Twenty-nine percent of Democrats/respondents leaning Democrat will donate to two organizations, on the other hand, compared to 19 percent of Republicans/respondents leaning Republican and 19 percent of independent/”something else” respondents.

Last but not least, respondents who identify as married are least likely to focus their holiday giving on only one nonprofit organization. Fifty-nine percent of married people will donate to one organization this season, versus respondents identifying as single/never married (65 percent), separated (70 percent) divorced (72 percent), and widowed (78 percent).     

Animals, health, and human services lead all other nonprofits vying for donor support this holiday giving season. Twenty-six percent of respondents expecting to donate in the coming weeks will direct funds towards animal welfare-themed nonprofits, narrowly edging out health- and human services-themed organizations at 25 percent each. Religious-themed organizations are next at 19 percent, followed by human and civil rights at 16 percent. 

There are some significant differences between the types of organizations white respondents choose to support and those identifying as non-white (i.e., Black, Asian, Hispanic, and other respondents). Support for animal-based organizations is higher among whites (29 percent) than non-whites (22 percent), while support for human and civil rights organizations is much higher among non-whites (22 percent) than whites (12 percent). However, the two sides are separated by less than a percentage point on their support for causes dedicated to human services and religion.

Respondent age is another critical differentiator. Among the most notable discrepancies, support for animal-related causes is much higher among respondents younger than 35 (at 34 percent), compared to 22 percent of respondents 35 and older. Younger Americans are also more bullish on donating to organizations dedicated to human and civil rights (supported by 24 percent of respondents under 35, versus 12 percent of respondents 35 and up); education (supported by 23 percent of respondents under 35, versus 11 percent of respondents 35 and up); and the environment (supported by 21 percent of respondents under 35, versus 9 percent of respondents 35 and up). Respondents 35 and older expressed far greater support for religious-themed nonprofits at 22 percent, compared to 15 percent of respondents under 35. 

Nonprofits must play the waiting game this season: 34 percent of Americans don’t plan to donate to their favorite causes until sometime before Christmas, and 30 percent say they’re not sure when they will fork over their contributions. Just 11 percent of respondents say they will donate as soon as possible, with 14 percent promising to donate in the weeks before Thanksgiving and 11 percent promising to donate “near the end of the year.”

Income weighs significantly on donation timing. Forty-one percent of respondents earning more than $100,000 a year plan to donate to nonprofit causes sometime prior to the Christmas holiday, compared to 33 percent of respondents making between $50,001 and $100,000 and 29 percent of respondents earning $50,000 or less. On the flipside, 36 percent of respondents making $50,000 or less don’t know when they will make their holiday season donation, versus 28 percent of respondents making between $50,001 and $100,000 and 19 percent of respondents earning more than $100,000 a year.

Sixty-eight percent of Americans do not plan to deduct giving season donations from their 2022 taxes. The remaining 32 percent of respondents intend to deduct their donations from next year’s tax filing. 

Education and income are once again key influencers. Only 18 percent of respondents making under $50,000 annually plan to deduct giving season donations when they file their taxes, compared to 33 percent of respondents earning between $50,001 and $100,000, and 48 percent of respondents earning more than $100,000. Similarly, just 11 percent of respondents without a high school degree plan to deduct their 2022 holiday donations, compared to 69 percent of respondents with an advanced degree. 

Geography also plays a critical role. Forty-four percent of respondents living in America’s western states plan to deduct their holiday donations, compared to 26 percent of residents in southern states, 32 percent of Midwesterners, and 34 percent of Northeasterners.