Long before Americans cast their ballots in the 2022 midterm election, Civis Analytics built demographic models predicting which registered voters were and were not likely to vote, as well as identifying the general characteristics of the substantial number of citizens likely to register late in the cycle. These models were used by Civis clients to predict the outcomes of races and to allocate resources for persuading likely voters to support their candidate.
Now that the dust has settled and the ballots have been counted, Civis is ready to reveal how our models fared — whether the people our model said were more likely to vote really did vote, and whether, on aggregate, we predicted the right composition of the electorate across demographics like race, education, and age. Download the research report Who Turned Out to Vote in 2022? A Post-mortem of the Civis Midterm Voter Turnout Model for answers to questions including:
- How did the 2022 election differ from the 2018 midterms?
- Did the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion protections meaningfully impact who voted?
- What can the results teach us about how to more confidently predict voter turnout in 2024, and how can Democrats improve their chances in future elections?