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Eviction Modeling as the Federal Eviction Moratorium is set to expire

Rental Modeling

Methodology

We modeled survey responses from 1,137 American adult renters who answered the question ‘How concerned are you about being evicted from your home in the next six months?’ We grouped anyone who said ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned into a larger category of “concerned Americans” and those who said ‘slightly’ or ‘not all all’ into a larger category of ‘not concerned Americans.’

Results 

  • 36% of American renters overall are concerned about getting evicted in the next 6 months. This concern is not spread evenly, however:
  • Geography:
    • State averages vary from 28% in New Hampshire to 43% in GA. Generally, there seems to be correlation between red/blue states with blue states having renters less concern about eviction than red.
      • Bottom ten:
        • NH (28%), MA (28%), VT (30%), MN1 (30%), CT (30%), PA (30%), WI (30%), ME (31%), SD (31%), RI (31%)
      • Top ten:
        • GA2 (43%), AR (42.5%), AL (42%), LA (42%), TX (41.3%), NM (40.7%), NV (40.5%), OK (39.6%), DC (38.9%)
    • Disparities in cities with local eviction protections vs without, Houston3 41% vs DC4 33%.
  • Race/ethnicity:
    • Disparities among white and non-white: on average, non-white renters’ concern level is 10% higher across states.
    • Aggregated concern across the US for Black renters is 47% and 43% for Hispanic renters, 32% for White renters.
  • Income:
    • As expected, income is highly correlated with concern level. About 38% of people making under 60K are concerned, opposed to 30% of people making over 150K.
  • Age:
    • Younger renters are most concerned, and this concern decreases with age.
      • 18-34: 40%
      • 35-49: 39%
      • 50-64: 34%
      • 65+: 28%
Swarm graph showing the distribution of eviction concern by race
Footnotes
  1. In Minnesota, lawmakers just struck a deal prohibiting the eviction of any renters who are in the process of applying for rental assistance. That protection will last for 12 months, until June 2022.
  2. In Georgia, there are no limits on late fees and security deposits, and there are no laws in place for notification before entrance (though a 24-hour notice is recommended). In addition, Georgia has an informal eviction process: landlords must give the tenant notice that rent is due, but it doesn’t have to be written and there is no specific notice period, unless it’s spelled out in a written lease (if there is one). Once the tenants are aware of the notice, they have seven days to pay or comply with the order. Otherwise, the landlord can go to the court and file an unlawful detainer lawsuit which begins the process of evicting the tenant. 
  3. Unlike in Houston, most Austin renters still cannot be evicted during the pandemic, and local protection will continue even if the federal moratorium expires this month.
  4. On May 18, the D.C. Council voted to maintain the city’s eviction moratorium. The moratorium protects tenants from eviction for nonpayment until 60 days after the public health emergency (which the Mayor just extended to July 25) ends.